My Backcountry Decision Making Process
Before doing anything during my winter morning routine I check the avalanche report to see what the experts are calling for. Today, they called for High Danger because of the 2 feet of new snow and the 80-90 mph gusts above 10,000 feet. Once I see that bright red color in any report, it's an immediate no-go for me. For others, I understand they have a different acceptance of risk, but we are all different.
*Before going into this, I am not an expert forecaster or rider, nor do I play one on TV. I've been riding the backcountry going on my 5th season now: 3 in Utah, 1 in Chile, 1 in Wyoming. It's merely suggestions for backcountry travelers to open their eyes/minds to a different way of thinking, my way of thinking. You are responsible for yourself out there and should not rely on blog entries to stay safe out there. GET EDUCATED instead by experts in the field.
I've met and toured with an array of partners in the backcountry: the super aggressive (let's ride that tight couloir NOW even though 12 inches of new snow has fallen), the super conservative (is the snowpack bombproof yet?), the aggressive, the conservative, and the perfect median. There are so many variations and the degrees of separation between them are so minimal even in the same category. The only consistent decision making that I can control is my own. Here is my thought process (when it comes to safety, this has nothing to do with where the good snow is):
Before I leave the house:
1) Check the avalanche report.
Low - Go but check winds in-case of loading/slabs
Moderate - Dependent on the line. If it's a line below 34 degrees through trees, I'm definitely going. To the other extreme, if it's a tight couloir of 45 degree pitch I'll consider it but must be convinced to go.
Considerable - probably the hardest one to determine, I will typically take the conservative route nowadays and hit something low angle.
High - No-go
Extreme - Definitely no-go
There are other factors here as well. If you scroll up and read the "Today's Avalanche Problem", I determine a lot based on that as well. How deep is the slab? What kind of slab; soft or hard pack?
Soft slabs (sloughs) can be killer when riding in a tight chute or couloir. They can accumulate into more than just what has fallen. 3" on an open face can turn into 6" easily. 6" of a fast running slough in a tight space can sweep even the best skiers/riders off their feet.
Hard Slabs, well they can just kill you by way of trauma and I think are some of the scariest.
From this report on January 5th, this is a huge soft slab because 2 feet fell, so it's pretty obvious that it's deadly. Lots of reports though, are not as obvious.
2) ALP TRUTHS (picture courtesy of crankitupgear.blogspot.com)
Go through the ALP TRUTHS check list, and in-case you decide to skim this article and miss the important part of this graph, if 3 or more factors are present there is a high probability of an avalanche.
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| Click on image to make it easier to read |
3) Would I ski this by myself?
This is a question I ask all of the time. If I were to go out here solo, would I ski that with the risk of being buried and having nobody to dig me out?
Yes, we have avalanche beacons, avalungs, airbags, and whatever else is coming out in the near future (I'm proposing a bubble that encapsulates you to all of you gear engineers) but those are just ways to bump our chances of surviving an avalanche. The best way to avoid dying in an avalanche is not being in one. The sad truth is that beacons are used to recover bodies, not save lives. Yes, they can do that, but if you read avalanche-related death accounts you will see a huge variation of people dying from asphyxiation to trauma. There are stories of people being caught > their partner gets to the scene within seconds > gets a perfect probe strike > unburied them in a mere couple minutes and as an unfortunate result finds their buried partner dead from asphyxiation. In a recent study (2012), the numbers have gone down from 18 minutes under snow to 10 minutes, and I've even read in another study (I can't find the article again) that you have about 7 minutes to actually breath and survive under snow. 7 minutes, about the same amount of time that will take you to read this entire article.
Now, if you have an avalung you can survive under snow for about 57 minutes, but what if you hit something on the way while sliding or are launched off a cliff? If you have an airbag, you are sliding on the surface of the snow at a blazing 70 mph. I don't think I need to go any further with that. Bottom line, don't think because you carry a beacon, an airbag, and an avalung that you are set to survive everything and are invincible out there. It's like when people go from driving in snow with a 2 wheel drive car to 4WD/AWD. It doesn't mean you should drive like it's 80 degrees and sunny, it just means you are a little safer out there. You still should travel cautiously because anything can still happen.
4) Go :: No-Go
There's an on-going battle in my head when out in the backcountry that looks like, Go :: No-Go. Before my accident, I always leaned closer to Go and had to be convinced to Not-go. Seems dumb right? Common sense would say to be conservative, right? Well, get out there and see what happens because motivation, desire and adrenaline of anticipation can alter your mind. I had to switch my mindset that I always lean about 60%* towards No-Go and have to be convinced to Go and/or keep going. Once that percentage reaches about 75-80%* or higher there's no convincing me.
*Not an exact figure, based on gut instinct.
5) You determine if it's good, not your partner
I have had some really good partners that I feel I can trust out there, but the way I see it, is that they're a second/third opinion. Again, you have to rely on yourself to make that decision for yourself because you are going to be the one skiing the line and you are putting yourself at risk of being caught in an avalanche. It's not them putting themselves at risk until they actually ski it, if they want to and you don't feel like you should, then don't. If you die you can only blame yourself and there's nothing you can change about it. Meaning, you can't trade places with your partner who said at the beginning, "it's good".
6) All for one, one for all
With what was said in (5), before dropping a line of any type, I ask my partner/group a final question of, "so how does everybody feel about this?" If there is any dismay I'll ask why and try to convince them to ski it if it's good to ski. If they can't be convinced, then we all bail, together. None of this, "well I'm going anyway." All for one, one for all.
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| Courtesy of SenderGuides |
If you are unsure about the pack, dig a snow pit and see what results you get. Necessary meaning, you are unsure what the pack is doing and/or you are in a new area/state/region/climate/etc. If you dig a pit and you're still unsure, then don't go.
Another good technique when on the approach that takes much less time (but doesn't substitute a true snow pit) is a hand pit. I'll do these while on the approach and make assessments based on that as well.
Is it worth it?
The first and final question I ask myself all of the time now is, "is it worth it?" Is it worth it to go out on a High day just for a few turns with a chance of breaking something off? I always think no, because I have the next 50 years or so to splitboard (or as long as my body will let me). If your little guy (or gal) in your gut is telling you not to do something then you are making the right decision every time. No questions asked.
To put it simply, I do my best on my own to collect as much information as I can to make an argument to go or not-go. It's not based on one or two factors but multiple factors that I determine for myself if the slope is good to ski or not.
At the end of the day, you can determine if it was a good day of skiing if everyone made it back home. Don't be stupid and risk something for a video or photo because you want something for your Instagram. There are less women who get caught in avalanches than men, I think it's because women aren't as ego-driven. Don't try to have a "sizing" contest out there instead, be smart, be conservative when you need to be, stay safe and enjoy the snow for what it is. Just snow.
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